Gold and Silver Prices
Here is an overview of this interview with Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management recently discussed the potential impact of China halting its gold purchases on the broader market. This move raises concerns about whether other central banks might follow suit. Thanks to Money sense for this interview Follow on X: https://twitter.com/MoneySense_Off
Main points discussed are
Central Bank Gold Purchases: Despite China’s pause in gold purchases in May and June, other central banks, such as those in Poland and India, continue to buy gold, maintaining market momentum. Central bank buying has been a major driver of gold demand over the past 18 months.
Chinese Investors’ Gold Demand: Chinese investors are increasingly buying gold due to concerns about their banking system, economic stability, and the ban on cryptocurrencies. This has led to a significant increase in gold investments, particularly in Gold ETFs.
Wealthy Individuals and Families: High-net-worth individuals, especially in the Middle East and Asia, are buying physical gold due to concerns about economic stability and system fragility, further supporting the gold market.
Contrasting ETF Trends: While Asian Gold ETFs have seen inflows, North American and European Gold ETFs have experienced steady withdrawals throughout the year, indicating regional differences in investment behavior.
Economic Environment: Despite a seemingly unfavorable macroeconomic environment for gold (high interest rates, strong dollar, low inflation, strong stock market), gold prices have surged above $2400 an ounce, demonstrating robust demand driven by diverse factors beyond traditional economic indicators.
China’s Latest Move Could Change Gold and Silver Prices Forever
In May, various central banks continued buying gold despite China’s pause. Turkey, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia were still purchasing, unaware that China had stopped. The full numbers for June are not yet available, but they will be crucial in determining if other central banks are still active buyers. If China’s hiatus extends to six months, there’s a risk other central banks might also hold back, anticipating lower prices.
Gold prices have surged past $2400 an ounce, nearing new record highs, even though China’s central bank hasn’t increased its gold reserves for the past two months. This market resilience highlights growing demand from multiple sources. Adrian Day points out that central bank purchases have been the primary driver of recent gold demand. Although China was the leading buyer until its recent pause, other countries have maintained the momentum in the market. The 2024 Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey indicates that 29% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next year, the highest level since the survey began in 2018.
India’s central bank notably increased its gold reserves last month, the largest increase in almost two years. Chinese investors represent the second major factor driving gold demand, seeking a safe haven amid concerns about the banking system, economic stability, and potential currency devaluation. With the real estate market posing risks and cryptocurrencies banned, gold has become an attractive option for Chinese savers. This is evident in the significant rise in Chinese investments in Gold ETFs over the past six months.
Wealthy individuals and families, particularly in the Middle East and Asia, are also contributing to the robust gold market. This diverse range of buyers, each with different motivations, has bolstered the market. Adrian Day emphasizes that central bank buying has been the main driver of gold demand over the past 18 months, with China being the primary buyer until its recent pause. Even when China stopped buying in May and June, other countries continued to purchase gold.
Chinese investors, nervous about the banking system, the economy, and potential currency devaluation, are seeking refuge in gold. With real estate being a less viable option due to many companies going bankrupt and a ban on cryptocurrencies, gold remains a preferred investment for many Chinese savers. This trend is evident in the reported numbers from the Shanghai Gold Exchange and imports into Hong Kong.
On the other hand, North American and European Gold ETFs have seen steady withdrawals, contrasting with the inflows into Asian ETFs. This divergence highlights different regional perspectives on gold investment. While the macroeconomic environment, including high interest rates, a strong dollar, and relatively low inflation, might seem unfavorable for gold, many buyers are driven by concerns about systemic fragility rather than traditional economic indicators.
Central banks are buying gold due to the weaponization of the dollar, while Chinese buyers are driven by fears about their economy. Wealthy individuals and families, particularly in the Middle East and Asia, are also significant buyers, concerned about the overall stability of the financial system.
Despite softening inflation data, the gold market remains strong. The People’s Bank of China’s pause in gold purchases for the second consecutive month in June has raised some concerns. However, Adrian Day notes that other central banks, like those in Poland and India, are filling the void, showing persistent demand from official sectors.
Adrian Day wasn’t surprised by China’s pause, given the significant increase in gold prices since China started buying. He is more concerned about whether other central banks will follow China’s lead if the pause continues. The full impact of China’s decision will become clearer once the June numbers are available.
While gold ETFs in the West are seeing outflows, those in the East are experiencing inflows. This trend reflects the differing macroeconomic perspectives across regions. Despite the strong stock market and high interest rates, which typically compete with gold, central banks and sophisticated investors continue to buy gold for reasons beyond the traditional economic environment.
Central banks are motivated by the weaponization of the dollar, while Chinese buyers seek a safe haven amid economic uncertainties. Wealthy individuals and families are purchasing gold due to concerns about systemic fragility. As gold prices remain resilient, the interplay between central bank policies, investor sentiment, and economic uncertainties will shape the precious metals market in the coming months.